AIA Free Weekly Email 7.2.24

Happy Independence Day!

Gold & Silver Miners vs. US Economy

This seemed like an interesting take on the cheapness of the gold and silver sector.

Mike Alkin Interview

This is an interview with Mike Alkin, during which he discusses the current state of the uranium market, inventories, new mine delays, and a Q&A session.

I always like listening to Mike as he is solely focused on uranium and probably has some of the best insight into what is happening in the uranium market.

Mag 7

The Magnificent 7 is now bigger (by market cap) than the world’s combined energy, basic materials, utility, and transportation stocks.

Mag 7 is bigger than energy, utilities, transportation, and basic materials combined

The Magnificent 7 are now bigger than any stock market in the world.

Bigger than any stock market in the world except the US

You know my view, as I have stated in the past. Buying cheap things better serves your chance of compounding over the long term. Buying things everyone else buys because they are popular (usually overvalued) can work in the short term. Just like someone can go on a run at the blackjack or craps table. However, we all know that most gamblers lose money in the end.

Gambling is to engage in a game of chance—roulette, dice, or the like. Since most people in the markets have no idea what they’re doing, they actually are gambling—just using their brokerage house as a casino. Perhaps that’s why people conflate the two things. -Doug Casey

Again, if you had to choose between holding $1,000,000 in Nvidia stock for the next ten years or a $1,000,000 basket of utility, energy, basic material, and transportation stocks over the next ten years, which would you pick? Why?

Jeffrey Sachs: The Untold History of the Cold War, CIA Coups Around the World, and COVID's Origin

Professor Jeffrey Sachs is the President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University. He is the author of many best selling books, including The End of Poverty and The Ages of Globalization. Here he is with probably the smartest and most accurate assessment of the Ukraine war, and American foreign policy more broadly, ever caught on tape.

It's over two hours, but well worth the time if you want to understand the US Hegemon, what it is trying to accomplish in Ukraine (and the world), and why. Dr. Sachs says that the US foreign policy is that “The US must be the unchallenged superpower everywhere on earth.” But can we afford to do this? Isn’t this how other empires ended up dying?

Is this what you want as a regular person just trying to live your life? We can try and have an empire that only benefits the elite and political class, or we can focus on the problems and concerns of the average person here in the US. I choose the latter option.

This does have medium—and longer-term investment implications, as conflict and war are usually inflationary. In addition, commodities and resources are likely to increase in price as supply is disrupted and challenged. I do not wish for conflict so as to make money, but I understand that I must look at things for what they are and not what I want them to be.

That is it for this week. Wishing you a Happy July 4th.

Regards,

John Polomny

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