AIA Weekly Free Email 31 December 2023

Weekly Linkfest

Chart of the Week

Palm Valley Capital Management

The Spring Crack-Up Boom

The timing of Powell’s pivot (before option expiration and year-end bonuses) reminded us of Alan Greenspan and his surprise rate cuts, often timed to maximize the impact on financial markets. Shifting policy as stocks traded near record highs was also surprising, supporting the belief that Powell doesn’t view asset inflation as inflation.

The industry didn’t need to be turbocharged heading into the all-important spring selling season. Post-pivot, home prices will likely accelerate, causing prices relative to incomes to expand further. While lower mortgage rates may soften the blow, the housing affordability crisis is not going to be solved by easing monetary policy and more housing inflation.  

Another good outfit to follow. They run a fund and write about the markets occasionally. I have found their writing skeptical of the FED and the overvalued markets, yet they continue to do well in their fund. If you want to follow them, you can sign up to have them send their posts to your email.

Goehring & Rozencwajg

Jevons Paradox: Improved Energy Efficiency Increases Demand - Let's Discuss

Gavekal Research

The Revenge Of The Ottoman Empire

Videos/Podcasts

Harris Kupperman on the Market Huddle podcast. Discusses uranium and offshore.

Idea Farm from Meb Faber

“75 Facts from 2023”

Some examples:

“Berkshire Hathaway has grown its book value per share by 14,123x since 1955”

"Out of 28,114 publicly-listed U.S. companies analyzed over past century, 25 best stocks have created nearly 1/3 of all shareholder wealth; put another way, just 0.1% of stocks have added over $17.6 trillion to investors’ wallets." 

“The US has driven all the growth in global oil supply, both over the past decade and over the past year.”