Free Weekly Email 1.7.24
Ben Finegold: Uranium in 2025 — Price Outlook, Plus Stocks, Supply and Demand
Ocean Wall's Ben Finegold shares his 2025 outlook for uranium, saying that for him it remains the most compelling commodity story. In addition to uranium's strong supply/demand fundamentals, he discusses where both spot and term prices may go this coming year. Finegold sees the term price ending 2025 in the US$95 to US$100 per pound range, although that could happen sooner given that some contracts are already being signed at those levels. In terms of the spot price, it should rise "well over US$100." Finegold also outlines where he sees opportunities among the uranium stocks.
The Lonely Skepticism of a Bull-Market Skeptic
As investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and lately for a Trump Presidency, has been driving the stock market to record highs this year, Jeremy Grantham has been having flashbacks. At the end of the nineteen-nineties, the veteran value investor—one that looks for undervalued stocks—shied away from soaring Internet and technology stocks, believing that their prices had departed from financial reality, and that the market was heading for a crash.
Far from thanking him for sounding the alarm, many clients of G.M.O., a Boston-based investment-management firm that Grantham had co-founded, held it responsible for making them miss out on a vertiginous rise in the Nasdaq, which went up by about a hundred and sixty per cent between 1998 and 1999. Some withdrew their money from the company. “We started off in a good position, and in two years we lost almost half of our business,” Grantham recalled.
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Fortunately for Grantham, his skepticism eventually proved well founded. In March, 2000, the dot-com bubble finally burst, and during the subsequent eighteen months the Nasdaq plunged about seventy per cent, inflicting huge losses on those who had got in near the market top. G.M.O.’s investments, which were positioned for the fall, actually made money during this torrid period, and the firm attracted a lot of new clients. “Suddenly, we were superheroes, and the whole thing turned out fine,” Grantham said. “But that was only possible because I was the boss, and I was putting a lot of pressure on people to double down.”
Gratham is another investor I respect. He has seen markets similar to the one we are in now, which is a good view from a successful contrarian and value investor.
Geopolitical Trends & Commodities That Could Outperform in 2025 - John Polomny
In this conversation, John Polomny from Actionable Intelligence discusses 2024 events that could influence the markets in 2025 and beyond, geopolitics, monetary systems and commodities that could outperform in 2025 and the reasons behind it.
Lucijan from Triangle Investor interviewed me recently. If you are familiar with my work, you will likely know what I talk about.
I also appeared on Steve Barto’s “In it to win it” channel.
A Deep Dive into Special Situation Investing with 6 Bravo
This is a good interview, as I have become a fan of the Six Bravo Substack. These guys are also big Marty Stahl/Horizon Kinetics fans. They discuss their concentrated portfolio and favorite stocks of mine, Texas Pacific Land and Landbridge.
That is it for this week.
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Regards,
John Polomny