Free Weekly Email 5.28.25
The Case For A Commodities Supercycle & Why Energy In Particular Looks Attractive | Jesse Felder
On Monday I had first time guest Jesse Felder on the podcast to cover a bunch of different things going on in financial markets. We talked about his view on a commodities supercycle, and why he finds energy particularly attractive currently. We also talked currencies, passive investing, real estate, and several other topics. It was a fun conversation, and for investors with views that are outside of the consensus, it might be interesting.
The Hidden Revival of Platinum and Palladium
In 2000, palladium was $400 and platinum just over $500. Few cared—until prices soared, and South African equities rose 30- to 60-fold. Now, after years in the wilderness, PGMs are once again flashing a familiar signal.
Platinum has been in a 16-year bear market. Palladium has collapsed 70% in just four. Investors have written them off, convinced electric vehicles will make catalytic converters obsolete.
But what if they’re wrong?
Our research suggests that hybrids—not EVs—are the true efficiency breakthrough. And hybrids require more platinum group metals, not less. Add to that tightening global emissions standards, collapsing supply, and a dramatic recovery in investment demand, and the setup begins to look eerily familiar.
Could PGMs be the next uranium?
I always look forward to the quarterly commentary from these guys, and this month, they do an in-depth look at platinum and the prospects for an emergence from its decade-long bear market.
Platiunum breaking out
Platinum Group Metals: A Comprehensive Supply and Demand Forecast to 2050
In this report I have analysed every platinum group metal (PGM) mine, project, and company worldwide. Particularly, I have analysed their production and production capacity long term.
I have also gathered data on the average global PGM grade, and the depth of mines going back to the 1800s. In addition to this, I have created a supply and demand model that should predict PGMs for the next 25 years. Building a S&D model was the aim of this report.
It appears that many people on Fintwit and Substack have suddenly developed an interest in platinum group metals. This is a well-researched article about the PGM market and the supply/demand setup.
I have been accumulating physical platinum for a little over a year. I am content to buy a metal that is selling for less than the cost of current production. It may take some time for the rest of the market to catch up.
Still, as long as demand for platinum remains at near current levels, it is only a matter of time before the price resets higher or additional unprofitable platinum operations shut down. Low prices will cure low prices. I am not ready to buy PGM miners until I am more confident that the bottom is truly in for platinum group metals (PGMs).
That’s it for this week. Thanks for subscribing.
Regards,
John Polomny